Forthcoming LSHTM Health Economics seminars:


The effect of differentiated soft drink tax: a censored panel data approach

Abdulfatah Adam, PhD Student (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen

Sinne Smed, Associate Professor (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Date: Wednesday 21st September 2016 12.45-14.00

Venue: Mary Seacole, Tavistock Place

Abstract: 

Monthly data from GfK Consumerscan Scandinavia for the years 2006 – 2009 are used to estimate the effects of different tax scenarios on the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSB’s). Most studies fail to consider demand interrelationships between different types of soft-drinks when the effects of taxation are evaluated. To add to the literature in this aspect we estimated a censored almost ideal demand system where we include the possibilities that consumers have to substitute between diet and regular soft-drinks, between discount and non-discount (normal) brands as well as between different container sizes. Especially the large sizes and discount brands provide considerable value for money to the consumer. Three different type of taxes is considered; a tax based on the content of added sugar in various SSB’s, a flat tax on soft-drinks alone and a size differentiated tax on soft-drinks that remove the value for money obtained by purchasing large container sizes. The scenarios are scaled equally in terms of obtained public revenue. Largest effect in terms of reduced intake of calories and sugar are obtained by applying the tax on sugar in all beverages, even though detrimental health effects in terms of increased intake of diet soft-drinks has to be considered. A flat tax on soft-drinks decreases the intake of sugar, but implies a small increase in total calorie intake due to substitution with other SSB’s. A tax aimed at removing the value added from purchasing large container sizes increase sugar and total calorie intake due to substitution towards discount brands. Hence the results show the importance of considering substitution between different sizes, brands and discount versus normal brands when simulating the effects of soft-drinks taxation and point toward a tax on the sugar content of SSB’s as the most effective in the regulation of obesity.

Organisers:  Diana Quirmbach () and Stephen O’Neill ()

Slides of previous seminars can be found here.

Forthcoming LSHTM Health Economics seminars:


Sex, risk and incentives: The effect of new HIV prevention products on the market for commercial sex in South Africa

Matthew Quaife, PhD Student (LSHTM)

Date: Wednesday 28th September 2016 12.45-14.00

Venue: Mary Seacole, Tavistock Place

Abstract:

Female sex workers (FSWs) face a high risk of HIV acquisition and new HIV prevention products are often trialled among FSW groups. FSWs face different risks and incentives from other high-risk populations because they work in a competitive market environment. In many places, agreeing to supply unprotected sex can result in large price premiums, however, the impact of new products on the supply side of the commercial sex market is unknown.

This study uses a repeated discrete choice experiment (DCE) design to explore how the introduction of an effective HIV prevention product would affect FSW preferences for pricing, type of sex-act and client characteristics. We conduct a framed DCE among 203 FSWs in Ekurhuleni Municipality, near Johannesburg. Results indicate 1) HIV positive FSWs have significantly different preferences for act price and protection than HIV negative FSWs, and 2) effective prevention products will change the market for commercial sex, potentially leading to greater economic vulnerability and pressure for women to provide unprotected sex.

Organisers:  Diana Quirmbach () and Stephen O’Neill ()

Slides of previous seminars can be found here.

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